Re: Oracle buys Innobase

Marc G. Fournier wrote:
> On Mon, 17 Oct 2005, Greg Sabino Mullane wrote:
>
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>>> I think Oracle will buy MySQL too eventually
>>
>> No, MySQL AB is a private company and would probably never
>> sell to Oracle.
>>
>>> They started with InnoDB because that is likely to lower the
>>> price tag of MySQL
>>
>> You seem to misunderstand the power and wealth of Oracle. The cost of
>> buying MySQL AB would be insignificant to them.
>
> Not only that, "potentially crippling" MySQL by pulling InnoDB out from
> under them would not only reduce MySQL's worth, but also has a massive
> potential of reducing their marketshare, long term.
>
And in what respect would that be negative for Oracle? There will be enough customers stuck
on MySQL to make a purchase worth while anyway, reduced market share or not.

Oracle has two ways of making money from the InnoDB acquisition:
1. They charge for InnoDB licenses and thereby remove MySQL's profit. MySQL will probably
die if they do this and their customers will seek alternatives. I think PostgreSQL is a far
more likely alternative then Oracle. Especially if Oracle is the one who provokes the change.
2. They buy MySQL and charge the customers what they are charged today. Everyone is happy
and Oracle just expanded their customer base.

> Until MySQL has to re-negotiate their contract with Inno^H^H^H^HOracle,
> its all speculation though ... don't know when that comes due, but their
> might be enough time between now and then for MySQL to recover on their
> own (ie. come up with an alternative to InnoDB) ...
>
In which case Oracle would gain nothing from its purchase of InnoDB. I don't see that as a
very likely scenario.

Regards,
Thomas Hallgren