Query Performance / Planner estimate off

Dear Postgres community,

I'm looking for some help to manage queries against two large tables.

Context:
We run a relatively large postgresql instance (5TB, 32 vCPU, 120GB RAM)
with a hybrid transactional/analytical workload. Data is written in batches
every 15 seconds or so, and the all queryable tables are append-only (we
never update or delete). Our users can run analytical queries on top of
these tables.

We recently came across a series of troublesome queries one of which I'll
dive into here.

Please see the following gist for both the query we run and the \d+ output:
https://gist.github.com/mewwts/9f11ae5e6a5951593b8999559f5418cf.

The tables in question are:
- `ethereum.transactions`: 833M rows, partitioned, 171M rows after WHERE
- `uniswap_v2."Pair_evt_Swap": 12M rows, not partitioned, 12M rows after
WHERE

The crux of our issue is that the query planner chooses a nested loop join
for this query. Essentially making this query (and other queries) take a
very long time to complete. In contrast, by toggling `enable_nestloop` and
`enable_seqscan` off we can take the total runtime down from 16 minutes to
2 minutes.

1) Vanilla plan (16 min) : https://explain.depesz.com/s/NvDR
2) enable_nestloop=off (4 min): https://explain.depesz.com/s/buKK
3) enable_nestloop=off; enable_seqscan=off (2 min):
https://explain.depesz.com/s/0WXx

How can I get Postgres not to loop over 12M rows?

Let me know if there is anything I left out here that would be useful for
further debugging.

--
Mats
CTO @ Dune Analytics
We're hiring: https://careers.duneanalytics.com